Which way is this ride going?

The Wall Street Journal / NBC Poll released on March 3, 2009 was the best look we have gotten since election day as to what the American people are thinking and feeling. We have as regular Americans been inundated with news coverage of the incredibly negative statistics showing the health or in this case the sickness of our economy. We have talking heads that like to now refer this to the Great Recession, as if a regular recession wasn’t bad enough for them. Every morning we are overloaded with home foreclosure news, unemployement figures, retail sales, automotive sales, bank failures and more and more and more. With this kind of endless assault on the American people one would expect the most recently released polling numbers to be sliding, granted there wasn’t much room to continue to slide after the last numbers released before election. At that time 12% of voters polled felt the country was headed in the right direction, and a whopping 78% said the country was headed in wrong direction. Just to put some numbers for comparison here, the DOW was at 9387.61 on 10/13/2008, the date last poll was released. The view was not pretty and we hadn’t seen the worse of it yet. Market continued to drop as confidence was still riding low. But something strange is in the air now, the new poll numbers show that 41% believe we are on the right track now, which we haven’t seen that high level of number since 2004. That is an increase of 29 points which is a increase of 300% from its low just 6 months ago. The number of people who believe we are on the wrong track as gone from 78% in October 2008 down to just 44%, a decrease of 34 points.

What do these numbers mean to the average working American who is struggling to pay his bills and is worrying about his kids going to college or school, not much, but it might help boost his confidence in our economy and it will help the leaders continue to get bills passed through congress. With a 60% approval rating on WSJ/NBC and a Gallup number in the mid 60’s, the American public are willing to trust this new president has a vision and has a grasp on what is needed to fix this economy. When asked how the President is doing handling economy he holds close with 56% approval on WSJ/NBC.

For our esteemed congress men and women, the numbers are showing improvement, not the same stratospheric numbers as the President, but their job approval as gone from 12% in October to 31% now, which is a number they haven’t seen since March 2007. It seems that more people are answering NOT SURE when asked about their performance, as the country waits with baited breath for Obama’s proposals to be passed through the congress.

Here are some very telling questions from the WSJ/NBC poll:

1. In looking at what President Obama is doing in terms of his leadership and plans for the country, do you feel more hopeful or more doubtful?

• More hopeful ....................................... 67
• More doubtful ...................................... 28
• Mixed (VOL) ......................................... 4
• Not sure................................................... 1

2. Do you think the Republicans in Congress have opposed President Obama's policies and proposals more because they are standing up for their principles OR more because they are trying to gain political advantage? **

· More because they are standing up for their principles .......... 30

· More because they are trying to gain political advantage....... 56

· Some of both (VOL) ................................................................ 10

· Not sure ................................................................................... 4

3. Do you think that the recently passed economic stimulus legislation is a good idea or a bad idea? If you do not have an opinion either way, please just say so

· Good idea ........................................... 44

· Bad idea.............................................. 36

· Do not have an opinion ...................... 15

· Not sure ............................................... 5

As you can see from our Gallup Daily Tracking poll the President has enjoyed support ranging from 61 to 67 just this last week. As days goes by and the first 100 days are counted down, here are a few hubdub markets to keep in mind.

What will President Obama's approval rating be on Monday March 16th, 2009?

What will President Obama's approval rating be after his first 100 days in office?

Moments in History part 1

One day in History

In my lifetime I have been able to witness many moments in history. I was watching television when Cal Ripken broke the record for consecutive games. I was watching television when the news broke that Ronald Reagan had been shot. I was watching television when the Challenger exploded. I was watching television when OJ Simpson led a low speed chase through Los Angeles and then when he was acquitted for the charges of Murder. I have been glued to my television for every stroke of Tiger Woods career. I remember thinking how interesting of a name it was when he played in Masters as an amateur. I have watched on television as won each of the 14 majors, I will be there when he breaks the record of 18, watching on television as many of us do.
I was watching television news coverage the day a man named Barack Obama announced his intention to run for President of the United States of America. I watched with great interest, I talked with many of my Republican friends, each of us unsure of what we were watching occur. I along with many Americans watched as this virtual unknown began to inspire and encourage change with each of his speeches. I began to get drawn into the invisible net that he was casting, his words surrounding me, making me believe I could be the change needed. I found myself in a position I had never known, here I was supporting a Democrat, I was persuading my friends not to believe what I believe, but just to listen and give his words a fair shake. Many were skeptical, but I watched as they silently began to get entangled in invisible net of hope and change. With each passing day and each passing speech more became supporters, more became involved in the political process like never before. House parties were coordinated, invites slipped to these secret republicans who supported Obama. We would gather for the Tuesday night results, we watched as Tim Russert so brilliantly explained how the country was about to do what it had never done before. The moments of a campaign slipped through that timer of life and we began to feel that our America was ready, our America as those before us believed that we were meant to do something. I was watching television during the Democratic Convention when our country nominated for the first time a man of color to represent a major political party. It was at that time that I decided that I could no longer watch history on television, I wanted to be a part of history. I volunteered for canvassing neighborhoods, making phone calls, working at polling locations, and attending events. I was there on the stage when Obama visited Sarasota Florida just 5 days before the election. I had stood in line for hours with thousands of others, all to share in the experience we were there for. I was forced to watch on television the election results as they poured in from around the country, I was watching with a great anxiousness as the results of Pennslyvania finally were revealed, and the mathematic possibilities began to dwindle for McCain. I was watching on multiple televisions tuned to multiple channels at the exact moment when each station broke to their breaking news banner and with what felt like one loud voice announced that Barack Obama had been declared the winner of the Presidential election. I stared in amazement as the looks of each news caster was shown and I felt a moment of sadness that Russert was not there to deliver the news. That moment hung in the air as no other moment had til then. I watched as did millions of others, as people gathered in Grant Park to celebrate. I watched as Barack Obama and his family walked onto that stage and delivered that great victory speech. It was at that moment that I made the decision I was going to do everything I could to witness the inauguaration in person.

Analysis of Sunday's Games

Steelers Win. Steelers Win. Steelers Win.
Yeah I know it shouldn't seem like something that is worth repeating, they had beaten the Chargers last time they met, they were higher ranked, playing at home, and have the NFL's number 1 defense. The Chargers were without their injury prone running back (lets call him mr. no play in playoffs). But after Saturdays games in which both visiting teams won, and then the Eagles upsetting the Giants, home field advantage looked like a curse. Never in the the history of the NFL had a playoff weekend saw all the road teams win, and until the last game this weekend it was very possible.
The Steelers came out and were immediately the victims of a very well placed pass, the Chargers ran a great play that pulled Troy down low to cover Gates, allowing one on one coverage deep. Rivers delivered a picture perfect pass into super tight coverage and the Chargers went up 7-0 immediately. I can tell you my heart sank a little, knowing the struggles our offense has had at times putting up points. The Steelers came out moved the ball a little, were just outside FG range and let Big Ben pooch punt the Chargers down at the 10. The Chargers who last week excelled in their punting game ended up punting the ball to Holmes who slipped right through weak special teams coverage and even the game up immediately. You could tell this was a blow to the Chargers morale. The 3rd Quarter of this game was where the Steelers showcased why they are an elite team. They took the opening kick and marched down the field taking 8 minutes off the clock, putting up 7 points. Then the Steelers defense game out and allowed the Chargers just one snap before deflecting and intercepting the pass. The Steelers then held the ball the rest of the 3rd Quarter. At one time in the game Philip Rivers hadn't touched the ball for 90 minutes (in real life time). From there the defense did what it did and the Steelers are now off to face the Ravens. This matchup was best described by Mike Tomlin who said a scrimmage with the Ravens is all out war, and this is the AFC Championship game. If the first two games are any indication this will be a nail biter, and FG's could win this one.
I want to also mention that the Eagles are looking like a Championship caliber team. Westbrook/Buckhalter are delivering one two running game / screen pass attack, while Jackson is a great deep threat. The defense seems to be playing with purpose. The Giants just don't have the swagger needed to win. They don't have Burris who for as nuts as he is, is still an excellent receiver. The loss of him has allowed teams to put more pressure on Eli. The Giants defense which amazed everyone this year by performing as well as they did without Strahan who retired, and Osi who was injured. This team is in trouble for next year as two of the three Earth, Wind and Fire RB's are up for free agency, Burris likely done, and only bright spot is Osi coming back.

I look forward to the match ups next week. Eagles / Chargers, and of course Steelers / Ravens.

Analysis of Saturday's Games

Well after watching both the games, I felt like I was really in tuned with my perspective on the Baltimore game. They simply out defensed the Titans. I expected the Ravens to put up a few more points on the Titans but knew the Titans were going to struggle putting up points against the Ravens.
As far as my Carolina analysis I think it is just a big of shock to everyone that Delhomme accounted for 6 turnovers (5 int, 1 fumble), the Cardinals put almost no pressure on Kurt Warner, and the Cardinals had to abandon the running game early. The Cardinals needed to execute a flawless game plan, keep the Panthers confused on play calling, get the ball to Fitzgerald regardless of number of men surrounding him, put pressure on Delhomme, and at the end of the day, the Cardinals are playing like the cardinals in the middle weeks of season, instead of the cardinals that didn't show up the final 3 weeks of regular season.

Presidential Inauguruation

At Hubdub we have many markets covering all the nuisances of the potential event. We have a market asking which bible verse his bible will be opened to:

Presidential Inauguration: What verse will Barack Obama's Bible be open to?

We are also curious if Barack Obama will use his middle name while taking the oath of office, most Hubdubbers feel he will:

Will Barack Obama use his middle name when taking the oath of office?

One of my personal favorite markets is asking about the infamous "Yes We Can" line that began in New Hampshire, swept the country with the video by Will I AM, and was chanted at the acceptance speech on election night. Currently more than half of the Hubdubbers feel he won't use the line at all, but I think he will, it fits his style, the American people want to be told that "Yes We Can":

Presidential Inauguration: How many times will President Obama use the phrase "Yes We Can"?

For those of you who are going to be in the crowd during this day, we have a market right up your alley, the National Weather Service measures the temperature on Inaugural Day and we have a market asking what our Hubdubbers feel it will be, you better hope they got a good bead on this one, they are calling for a very comfortable 35degrees:

Presidential Inauguration: What will be the temperature at noon as recorded by NWS?

Another market more tuned into those of you who will be braving the weather, while the rest of us watch from the comfort of our homes or offices, is this market asking How Many Words Long will the Inauguration Speech be, again here at Hubdub we seem to feel that President Obama will carry on for more than 2250 words:

Presidential Inauguration: How many words long will President Obama's address be?

and for those of you were were wondering here are the shortest and longest speeches - George Washington's second address was the shortest (135 words) and William Henry Harrison delivered the longest (8,495 words).
And before we let you go, we would like to ask those in attendance to help us out if at all possible. If you see someone throw a donut at Rick Warren please notify the category editor right away so we may settle this market:

Will Mega Church leader Rick Warren have a donut thrown at him before or on Inauguration Day?

and finally if you see Tom Hanks at the Inauguration and you give him your seat, you will be helping settle a very fun but silly market:

Will Tom Hanks be given a seat at Barack Obama's inauguration?

In a note of seriousness, please be safe, have a great time, and take alot of pictures. You may send all the pictures directly to me at destry@hubdub.com and I will share them on Picasa for everyone to see. Have a great time, enjoy your moment of history, and remember this "Now is the time to reclaim the American dream and reaffirm that fundamental truth, that, out of many, we are one; that while we breathe, we hope. And where we are met with cynicism and doubts and those who tell us that we can't, we will respond with that timeless creed that sums up the spirit of a people: Yes, we can."

Playoff Football games on Sunday Jan 11,2009

Game #1 Philadelphia Eagles vs New York Football Giants 1pm
I have run two straight years of fantasy football leagues by owning Brian Westbrook, this guy is a dynamo. He can on any play run a screen pass for 70 yards, or take a handoff up the middle for 40. A typical statline on this player is 150yds combined yardage, couple of scores, and the go to guy when things are needed. His backup Buckhalter is a star in his own right, this guy is explosive, makes a 3 yard run an 8 yd run and keeps the defenses guessing the whole time. Donovan McNabb a chronically underrated passer has had a litany of injuries at WR and yet has taken a rookie WR in Jackson and made him the man defenses have to key on. On the other side of the ball the Eagles defense has had lapses in playing this year, they have shutdown high flying offenses one week (week 17 in particular) but yet early in year that same team put up 30+ on that same defense. The Eagles key to this game is which defense shows up.
Speaking of the New York Football Giants, does anyone want to question Eli Manning and his toughness, or the 3 headed storm (Earth, Wind, & Fire) that dominates the running game, the WR fiasco they had with one of the truly talented receivers (granted seems to be fine line between talent and crazy) straying off into crazy world and yet this team kept plugging away week in and week out. This team needed a last second field goal to be the Bengals, the Eagles ended up tying the Bengals, and the Cowboys through a fluke in officiating pulled off a win against this hapless team. While each of the the teams played each other tough, it is the hard headness of the Giants running game that might spell trouble for this Eagles defense.
My Prediction: Giants 27 - Eagles 24 in overtime

Game 2 - Pittsburgh Steelers vs San Diego Chargers 4:45pm
The San Deigo Chargers are the team everyone wrote off since week 4, with fluke calls, last second losses and a star running back not putting up star numbers. But then the impossible seemed to occur, they just kept winning, not against great opponents but they still were winning, while the Broncos delievered the Conference to the Chargers on a platter, the Chargers took it with some gusto. One thing we have learned about the Chargers this year, Tomlinson is not the running back he use to be, he never will be again, he doesn't have the mental toughness the great running backs have. When big games are on the line, Tomlinson likes to sit or stand on the sideline and watch what happens. In 3 postseason games he accounts for only one score and lsess than 60 yards, definitely not Tomlinson numbers. Fortunately Sproles stepped up this year and Turner was there last year. If they were wise in San Diego they would find a new place for Tomlinson and keep the back ups who stay healthy or at least try to play come big game time. Philip Rivers, Vincent Jackson, Chris Chambers and Gates would all have been helped with a much better running game, but they have held their own. Can a limping Gates provide enough, will the Steel Curtain put Rivers on his back, these are the questions to this game.
The Pittsburgh Steelers have struggled mightly all year to protect the QB. Big Ben who has often been criticized for holding the ball too long can drive fans insane. The one player not on the field for this game who would had the biggest impact is Merriman. The addition of that one player and now the protection would be a growing concern, the lack of a running game would be a top topic for everyone to discuss. Has fast Willie Parker just become Willie Parket, is Moore the new fast back. And can someone find another Bettis for the 3rd and 1's. The ability of Big Ben to throw the ball deep and accurate is not in question, Nate Washington and Santanio Holmes should both see big games, while Hines Ward and Heath Miller patrol the middle of the field. This game is being played in Pittsburgh and our stifling defense will be too much again for this group of over acheivers who are carrying around an expired plane ticket back home.
My Prediction on this game Pittsburgh 28 - San Deigo 13. I predict Tomlinson will suit up but not actually play. I predict Rivers will be sacked at least 5 times.

Playoff thoughts for Saturdays Games

Game #1 - Baltimore vs Tennessee Saturday Jan. 10th, 2009 4:30pm

While I completely thought the entire season the Tennessee Titans had was a fluke, I still am stunned they are winning. The Baltimore Ravens and a rookie QB have been a shock all season. The defense they have has kept them in games, but the offense has truly won games for them. As a Steelers fan, I would rather face the Titans even though the Steelers beat the Ravens twice this season. The titans to me seem to be running out of luck, because I don't think there is enough skill to keep them in this playoffs any longer. Will Joe Flacco wake up and realize he is playing out of his mind, I hope so but I hope it don't happen this week. My prediction for this game is Baltimore 24 - Tennessee 13.

Game #2 - Arizona - Carolina - Saturday Jan 10th, 2009 8:15pm. 

This is a matchup that by all accounts would seem to favor the Carolina Panthers. With their explosive running game Williams and Steward, the dual threat receivers Smith & Muhammed, a defense that is well ranked and feared this seems to be a team playing great at the right time of the year. The Cardinals have no substantial running game, the fluke last week can not be repeated as we have seen all year. The Cardinals have excellent receivers when healthy, but Boldin being injured allows defenses to focus on Fitzgerald (who will still make one or two circus catches regardless).  I think we will see the weakness of the Cardinals defense and if it comes down to a time management issue, always go with the team with a better running game. My prediction Carolina 34 - Arizona 17.